NOYNOY LEADS in my FACEBOOK SURVEY

Posted: November 24, 2009 in Politics
Tags: , , , , , , ,

by Earlie D.

I recently conducted an online survey at my facebook account to less than a hundred friends and former students who are legitimate voters in the coming Philippines Presidential Elections 2010.  The respondents of the survey are mostly engineers and teachers who are currently working in the major cities of the country like Davao, Cebu, and Metro Manila.  With the survey question:  “Who will you vote for president if elections were held today? A. Joseph Estrada, B. Manny Villar, C. Noynoy Aquino, D. Eddie Villanueva, E. Chiz Escudero, F. Gilbert Teodoro. “

I sent a private message to all my facebook friends who are registered voters in the coming May 2010 elections and asked them to choose from options A-F.  I requested them to just reply the letter of the name of the president that they would vote in the elections.  The survey was conducted on November 22, 2009 and voting was closed on November 24, 2009.  Votes after 7:00PM UK time were no longer counted. There is a sixty five percent turn-out in the survey, four of whom have declined to vote citing their acceptable personal reasons.

Noynoy Aquino, the Liberal party’s standard bearer was way ahead in the survey with 46 percent of the total votes, followed closely by the controversial presidential aspirant Chiz Escudero with 33 percent.  Manny Villar shared a 12 percent vote and Gilbert Teodoro, the administration’s candidate, tailed at 9 percent. Both Erap Estrada and Eddie Villanueva garnered no votes in the survey.

As the elections move closer to May 2010, the possibility of voters changing their choices is inevitable as campaign promises and platform of governance could surely influence decisions.

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Comments
  1. Benedicto G. says:

    You think so? I disagree. =) Take a look at this (a careful analysis of a noted blogger, BongV):

    1. The SWS Survey was conducted September 18-21, 2009. Preference for Noynoy was at 60%.

    2. The Pulse Asia Survey was conducted October 22-30, 2009. Preference for Noynoy was at 44%.

    3. The survey results were taken at different times, therefore this takes on the nature of a time-series.

    4. As a time series, the survey results show that while Noynoy maintains a lead at 44% as of October 2009, this preference is lower than the 60% preference in September 2009. That means, a 16% decrease in approval.

    • earlied says:

      HI BENEDICT,

      Thanks again for taking time, I appreciate it very much. Anyway, you are always entitled to your own opinion, and if you disagreed mine it’s no problem at all. You are particularly right in your short lecture about the time-series model to predict outcome. However, time-series analysis is not very reliable in suggesting a trend in elections, that is why in Europe and in Americas, they seldom use this model to predict election results. In my reply I did not bother to stress statistics because I was plainly making a supposition that voters who preferred chiz before he dropped his intentions to run might have Noynoy as their second option-thus Noynoy’s advantage, now if that is not your case (assuming you originally preferred chiz but not having Noynoy as a second option), then that’s worthy of a statistical survey. Thanks again and God bless.

  2. Benedicto G. says:

    Chiz is out of the game.

    • earlied says:

      Hi benedict,

      Yes…chiz is no longer in the race…well, it’s going to be Noynoy’s advantage because i supoposed those who like chiz would have Noynoy as the second option..just an opinion anyway..thanks for dropping by..

      take care and God bless.